Well, it’s time. A little over 24 hours separates us from one of the most critical fixtures in our history. Many of our supporters are already in Lisbon, and pre-match anxiety is reaching fever pitch. One game tomorrow at the Estádio da Luz, another on Wednesday at Bilino polje, and when the dust settles we’ll know whether we’ve qualified for our first major tournament as an independent nation. Some obligatory musings from my scattered mind below the fold.

Our opponents: By any objective measure, Portugal go into this match as favorites. I could go on for a while about their exploits in the last couple of years, the reputation of their players, the clubs they play in, etc. But then again, everyone knows that stuff already, and – more importantly – favorites don’t always win. The Portuguese come in without their best individual performer, Cristiano Ronaldo, as well as their first-choice at the problematic #6 position and José Bosingwa. None of this tilts the scales or anything of the sort, but I do think it leaves us more evenly matched. The Portuguese likely starting XI looks mighty impressive nonetheless, and Carlos Queiroz does seem to have prepared extensively, scouting some of our key players in their club fixtures.

The mood: We’re all familiar by now with the soap opera that unfolded between Portugal and Real Madrid over the call-up of Ronaldo. I’m not sure what effect that has all had on the Portuguese preparations, but I can say that the mood in our camp is absolutely fantastic. Preparations have been held at a resort near Novi Vinodolski, a little seaside town in Dalmatia, so as to approximate the weather conditions that await us in Lisbon. Virtually everyone who has reported on the team there has commented on the “family-like” atmosphere among our players, to the point that it’s almost become cliche. There seem to have been literally no arguments or incidents between the players for over a year now, Ćiro is universally popular, captain Emir Spahić has carried out his responsibilities perfectly and both discipline and camaraderie seem to be at an all time high. To quote Asmir Begović:

“I’ve been amazed with the national team from the moment I arrived. The atmosphere at all the gatherings is like nothing I have ever experienced before. We breathe like one, and when you add to that the atmosphere that prevails among our fans on the terraces, then everything is better than great.”

Speaking of which, depending on the source, up to 7,000 Bosnian fans are expected in Lisbon. A similar contingent of Croatians made their presence felt at Wembley in Croatia’s famous win there, and I don’t see why our supporters can’t have a similar effect here.

Set pieces: You’ll often hear about what a good offensive side we are, but rarely does the media focus on our ability to score from set pieces. Sejad Salihović is the best free kick taker in the Bundesliga. Zvjezdan Misimović is close behind. Miralem Pjanić, at 19-years-old, has taken over the same responsibility at Olympique Lyonnais from the retired Juninho. Add to this the fact that the average height of our 10 field players is 6 ft 1, and you’re left with our secret weapon. Obviously the Portuguese are quite dangerous here as well, but I’ve heard several times now that, defensively, this might be their Achilles heel. This is a very different team from Turkey, so a set piece goal doesn’t quite hang in the air like it did in that game, but I still wouldn’t be surprised if we saw a repeat of this:

Tactics: When the draw was held, like many others, my first reaction was that we would have to play with four in the back. For a while, that was the prevailing outlook among Bosnian fans, but as of late consensus seems to have shifted back to our usual 3-5-2. Ćiro has been known to spring last minute surprises, so nothing is certain. That said, the argument for our standard formation goes something like this. Although most of the world, including Portugal, probably expects us to come to Lisbon and hold on for dear life, there are a couple of reasons why that approach probably wont do us any favors.

1.) Ćiro claims the field in question is too large to gamble on a “bunker”
2.) While our three center-backs are actually quite solid (Emir Spahić is my pick for the most underrated in Europe), we really don’t have a fourth defender that it would be worth forcing in there.
3.) All three of the above-mentioned center-backs have yellow cards left over from previous games, which means that with just one more yellow card they’d be out of the deciding game in Zenica. This puts us at a huge disadvantage if our goal is merely to hold on for dear life.
4.) Although our defense really isn’t as bad as it’s been made out to be, our strength is definitely in our attack. We’ve had our best success when playing to our strengths, whereas defensive formations against Turkey and Spain away yielded little.
5.) Since this first game is away, it’s even more important that we score.

For all these reasons, I think Ćiro will stick to his 3-5-2, hoping that a tightly organized pressing game can stifle the Portuguese attack while still allowing us to grab an away goal. Unlike our opponents, who have already declared themselves to be among the favorites in South Africa (you can be sure our players were reading these statements), the players’ and coaching staff’s only goal is to achieve a competitive result.

A few question marks remain with this formation. First of all, the goal. Kenan Hasagić has been our first-choice keeper for years, but he is terribly out of form right now and even Ćiro admits as much. I see Asmir Begović taking his place. The three center-backs will most likely remain the same. Salihović is a lock for the left wing-back, while I see the right wing-back spot going to Ibričić, who simply has to play one way or the other while Ćiro is in charge. As usual, Rahimić will be defensive midfielder, while I expect (and hope) that Muratović will no longer be in the second midfield spot after the debacle against Spain. Ćiro has already announced that Pjanić will be his joker off the bench, while he promised earlier that Bajramović would be in the starting XI if he could start regularly for Eintracht. He has, and therefore I see him there from the first minute in Portugal. The remaining offensive midfielders and the striking partnership? Misimović, Ibišević and Džeko – it almost goes without saying. Choice of substitutes will obviously depend on the circumstances of the match, but Pjanić, Muslimović and Medunjanin seem the most likely.

A final verdict?: Although we seem to have briefly become the darlings of Europe’s football media, I don’t get the impression that many Portuguese fans take us very seriously. And even if their manager has scouted our players on the club level, I find it incredibly telling (not to mention amateurish) that he has already announced his side as major contenders for the World Cup. Belgium was similarly confident, claiming that they were looking for six points from their two matches against us – we all saw how that ended up. I recognize that the Portuguese are a strong team, but I don’t consider them any stronger than Turkey or Spain. Against the Turks, I think we showed that we can carry our selves with Europe’s top sides. And as for Spain, I think most would agree that the 2-5 loss in Zenica was incredibly misleading; as the clip below demonstrates, with a little more luck we could’ve gone into the half with a 2-0 lead. The past year or so of Bosnian football has had an almost fairy tale-like quality, and I don’t see why it should end here. Our manager is looking for a draw or a narrow loss with away goals, and that’s also what I see as the most likely outcome here.

- Since the questions surrounding Spahić’s health were resolved, the big story in the run up to the qualifiers has been Asmir Begović. Begović had earned the wrath of Bosnian fans following his questionable interview last month, but the opinions quickly changed (as I expected) as soon as he put in some good performances. A surprise injury to David James has meant that Begović saw action in three games for Pompey, including fifteen minutes against Arsenal and ninety against Manchester City. Between that and the Carling cup tie, Begović conceded two goals in some 200 minutes, neither of which for he was particularly to blame (they were a dodgy penalty and an Adebayor header from a corner kick).

Begović arrived at the team hotel in Sarajevo on Monday, the same day as almost all of the other players. The media got a few statements from him on camera almost the moment he got out of the van, and it’s worth noting that he spoke Bosnian very well – I guess just about everything he said on that radio show was a lie. The general impression he has made in training itself has been very positive, with a lot of fans and media outlets commenting that he seems very determined and has made some fantastic saves. Meanwhile, the Bosnian national team has also made a good impression on Begović:

“It’s [completely] different than in Canada, or even in Portsmouth. You can see that people are living for this. At every training session a lot of fans come and watch us work – you don’t have that in Canada, and not even in Portsmouth, for they don’t allow fans to come to the trainings. And no, I don’t regret my decision at all, although it was a hard one to make.” – Asmir Begović

- Whether he’ll actually start against Armenia, however, is unknown. In terms of tactics, the first big question is goalkeeper. Asmir Begović or Nemanja Supić? For me it’s a no-brainer; Supić may have done everything that was asked from him against Belgium, but he’s currently without a club and definitely not in form. Begović, on the other hand, just did very well against two of the strongest teams in the world – he should get the start, and I expect that Ćiro will eventually see reason before kick off. The other big question is that of offensive midfielder, which we’ve discussed before on the blog. Zvjezdan Misimović has accumulated yellow cards, which means that someone will have to fill his shoes. That someone will most likely be 19-year-old wonderkid Miralem Pjanić, who has been performing very well in Lyon so far in the season. Beyond that, the likely names on the starting XI are well known, but the exact formation remains a mystery. The team has practiced with a number of different formations in favor of the traditional 3-5-2, and Ćiro’s statements to the press have not made things any clearer. Nothing’s certain until Saturday, when we’ll see if anything comes of it or if Ćiro was just bluffing for the opposition.

- Obviously, there are a couple of differences with the starting eleven that ran out in Genk. To start from the top, Zlatan Muslimović picked up a minor injury in the first game, so Senijad Ibričić has been moved up from left wing-back to take his spot. Ibričić doesn’t typically play striker (in Hajduk he starts rights behind them), but he’s a fairly versatile player with great technique and strong shot. Blažević coached Ibričić when he was just starting out at Zagreb, so he has tremendous faith in him. I would’ve preferred to see returning veteran and fan-favorite Marko Topić – last season’s second leading scorer in the Russian league – and I’m sure I’m not alone. As it is, however, Ibričić is a strong enough player that it doesn’t bother me.

- Two players return from injury. CSKA veteran Elvir Rahimić should be close to 100% by Wednesday, and when he’s ready he’s a lock for the starting XI. Rahimić is a crucial part of our team, and his return should add a lot of security to our midfield. More questionable is the inclusion of captain Emir Spahić, who ended up in a wheel chair after the last game. Spahić fell out of favor with Lokomotiv Moscow precisely because he kept playing for us through injuries, and it looks like he’s not about to stop anytime soon. A part of me would prefer that he doesn’t risk it, but I suppose that he knows what’s best for him. Depending on whether he’s in form or not, Spahić makes or breaks my confidence in our back line.

- The last major issue is with the wing backs. For better or for worse, Džemal Berberović remains a lock on the right side of the field. On the left, we haven’t had a natural since Saša Papac left and Mirko Hrgović went to waste. Offensive-minded maestro Sejad Salihović has been forced into the spot for most of Blažević’s tenure, but he’s currently out of operation. Ibričić (another offensive minded player) took over last week and played well. Now that he’s been pushed up to the front, all-arounder Sanel Jahić has taken this place. I would actually prefer to have Jahić start there regularly on the condition that it would free up Salihović for a more offensive role. No complaints here.

- The bench should be strong enough to handle all but the most severe crisis. Miralem Pjanić (AM, Lyon), Zlatan Bajramović (DM/CM, Frankfurt), Dario Damjanović (CB/DM, Kaiserslautern) and Marko Topić (ST, Saturn) strike me as the most likely candidates. Add Semir Štilić (CM/AM, Lech) to that list and things are looking pretty good on paper.

- Now for issues beyond our line-up. Belgium will no doubt be strengthened by the return of Vincent Kompany, who I have a lot of respect for. At the same time, although it might not be quite as easy to dance into the Belgian box anymore, our players have fared well against equally prestigious defensive names, so I’m not too worried. In my view, the biggest problem will be our approach to the game. In case you haven’t noticed, Bosnia has been in football euphoria for the past two and half days. If this celebratory mood gets to the players, we’re in trouble. On the other side of the pitch, Belgium will undoubtedly play like wounded lions. It’s not as if we’re such a better team than Belgium that we can rely on just our talent to get us through – mentality will be critical. With that in mind, I’ll rest my hopes with Blažević’s 40-some years of coaching experience and expertise. Although I’m far from his biggest fan, Ćiro has to be one of the greatest motivators in football history.

- The last thing I’ll mention is the home-crowd advantage. For those who don’t know, Zenica’s Bilino polje is notorious for its atmosphere. In post-match interviews, Belgium’s players seemed dismissive, claiming that the atmosphere was intense in Genk as well. They really don’t know what they’re getting themselves into. Although we probably won’t see another incident involving flares, Zenica will be Genk x3. The crowd there has carried us to far more unlikely results, and I have no doubt that they’ll serve as a 12th player tomorrow night as well. What’s more, I’m pretty sure that the pitch at Bilino polje is noticeably narrower than the one at Cristal arena. This works to our advantage, since the Belgians seem to love long passes, whereas we play according to what Del Bosque called “the old Yugoslav school” – technique, technique, technique.