Match preview: Portugal v. Bosnia-Herzegovina

November 13th, 2009 | by: Harun | Comments(12)

November, 14, 2009
Estádio da Luz, Lisbon, Portugal
20:30 Lisbon, London; 15:30 New York; 21:30 Zenica

Well, it’s time. A little over 24 hours separates us from one of the most critical fixtures in our history. Many of our supporters are already in Lisbon, and pre-match anxiety is reaching fever pitch. One game tomorrow at the Estádio da Luz, another on Wednesday at Bilino polje, and when the dust settles we’ll know whether we’ve qualified for our first major tournament as an independent nation. Some obligatory musings from my scattered mind below the fold.

Our opponents: By any objective measure, Portugal go into this match as favorites. I could go on for a while about their exploits in the last couple of years, the reputation of their players, the clubs they play in, etc. But then again, everyone knows that stuff already, and – more importantly – favorites don’t always win. The Portuguese come in without their best individual performer, Cristiano Ronaldo, as well as their first-choice at the problematic #6 position and José Bosingwa. None of this tilts the scales or anything of the sort, but I do think it leaves us more evenly matched. The Portuguese likely starting XI looks mighty impressive nonetheless, and Carlos Queiroz does seem to have prepared extensively, scouting some of our key players in their club fixtures.

The mood: We’re all familiar by now with the soap opera that unfolded between Portugal and Real Madrid over the call-up of Ronaldo. I’m not sure what effect that has all had on the Portuguese preparations, but I can say that the mood in our camp is absolutely fantastic. Preparations have been held at a resort near Novi Vinodolski, a little seaside town in Dalmatia, so as to approximate the weather conditions that await us in Lisbon. Virtually everyone who has reported on the team there has commented on the “family-like” atmosphere among our players, to the point that it’s almost become cliche. There seem to have been literally no arguments or incidents between the players for over a year now, Ćiro is universally popular, captain Emir Spahić has carried out his responsibilities perfectly and both discipline and camaraderie seem to be at an all time high. To quote Asmir Begović:

“I’ve been amazed with the national team from the moment I arrived. The atmosphere at all the gatherings is like nothing I have ever experienced before. We breathe like one, and when you add to that the atmosphere that prevails among our fans on the terraces, then everything is better than great.”

Speaking of which, depending on the source, up to 7,000 Bosnian fans are expected in Lisbon. A similar contingent of Croatians made their presence felt at Wembley in Croatia’s famous win there, and I don’t see why our supporters can’t have a similar effect here.

Set pieces: You’ll often hear about what a good offensive side we are, but rarely does the media focus on our ability to score from set pieces. Sejad Salihović is the best free kick taker in the Bundesliga. Zvjezdan Misimović is close behind. Miralem Pjanić, at 19-years-old, has taken over the same responsibility at Olympique Lyonnais from the retired Juninho. Add to this the fact that the average height of our 10 field players is 6 ft 1, and you’re left with our secret weapon. Obviously the Portuguese are quite dangerous here as well, but I’ve heard several times now that, defensively, this might be their Achilles heel. This is a very different team from Turkey, so a set piece goal doesn’t quite hang in the air like it did in that game, but I still wouldn’t be surprised if we saw a repeat of this:

Tactics: When the draw was held, like many others, my first reaction was that we would have to play with four in the back. For a while, that was the prevailing outlook among Bosnian fans, but as of late consensus seems to have shifted back to our usual 3-5-2. Ćiro has been known to spring last minute surprises, so nothing is certain. That said, the argument for our standard formation goes something like this. Although most of the world, including Portugal, probably expects us to come to Lisbon and hold on for dear life, there are a couple of reasons why that approach probably wont do us any favors.

1.) Ćiro claims the field in question is too large to gamble on a “bunker”
2.) While our three center-backs are actually quite solid (Emir Spahić is my pick for the most underrated in Europe), we really don’t have a fourth defender that it would be worth forcing in there.
3.) All three of the above-mentioned center-backs have yellow cards left over from previous games, which means that with just one more yellow card they’d be out of the deciding game in Zenica. This puts us at a huge disadvantage if our goal is merely to hold on for dear life.
4.) Although our defense really isn’t as bad as it’s been made out to be, our strength is definitely in our attack. We’ve had our best success when playing to our strengths, whereas defensive formations against Turkey and Spain away yielded little.
5.) Since this first game is away, it’s even more important that we score.

For all these reasons, I think Ćiro will stick to his 3-5-2, hoping that a tightly organized pressing game can stifle the Portuguese attack while still allowing us to grab an away goal. Unlike our opponents, who have already declared themselves to be among the favorites in South Africa (you can be sure our players were reading these statements), the players’ and coaching staff’s only goal is to achieve a competitive result.

A few question marks remain with this formation. First of all, the goal. Kenan Hasagić has been our first-choice keeper for years, but he is terribly out of form right now and even Ćiro admits as much. I see Asmir Begović taking his place. The three center-backs will most likely remain the same. Salihović is a lock for the left wing-back, while I see the right wing-back spot going to Ibričić, who simply has to play one way or the other while Ćiro is in charge. As usual, Rahimić will be defensive midfielder, while I expect (and hope) that Muratović will no longer be in the second midfield spot after the debacle against Spain. Ćiro has already announced that Pjanić will be his joker off the bench, while he promised earlier that Bajramović would be in the starting XI if he could start regularly for Eintracht. He has, and therefore I see him there from the first minute in Portugal. The remaining offensive midfielders and the striking partnership? Misimović, Ibišević and Džeko – it almost goes without saying. Choice of substitutes will obviously depend on the circumstances of the match, but Pjanić, Muslimović and Medunjanin seem the most likely.

A final verdict?: Although we seem to have briefly become the darlings of Europe’s football media, I don’t get the impression that many Portuguese fans take us very seriously. And even if their manager has scouted our players on the club level, I find it incredibly telling (not to mention amateurish) that he has already announced his side as major contenders for the World Cup. Belgium was similarly confident, claiming that they were looking for six points from their two matches against us – we all saw how that ended up. I recognize that the Portuguese are a strong team, but I don’t consider them any stronger than Turkey or Spain. Against the Turks, I think we showed that we can carry our selves with Europe’s top sides. And as for Spain, I think most would agree that the 2-5 loss in Zenica was incredibly misleading; as the clip below demonstrates, with a little more luck we could’ve gone into the half with a 2-0 lead. The past year or so of Bosnian football has had an almost fairy tale-like quality, and I don’t see why it should end here. Our manager is looking for a draw or a narrow loss with away goals, and that’s also what I see as the most likely outcome here.